Summary
- Shares have lost nearly three-quarters of their value since IPO and are in the red by 15% so far in 2019.
- Management gave a solid presentation at Jefferies, clearly communicating value proposition of its lead product and hydrogel-based platform.
- Preparations have been made to maximize odds of a successful launch for Dextenza to treat postoperative ocular pain.
- Additional product candidates and collaborations provide investors optionality. PDUFA date in November for inflammation is also an important event.
- The stock is a Speculative Buy. Risks include setback in launch and near-term dilution.
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Shares of Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) have lost nearly three-quarters of their value since IPO was priced at $13 in 2014. Over the past year, the stock has lost half its value and is in the red by roughly 15% so far in 2019.
This busted IPO popped up on my radar after a recent cluster of insider buying(Chairman just bought 45,780 shares, Chief Medical Officer with multiple purchases, etc.). After listening to management's presentation at Jefferies, I was able to overcome my initial skepticism to realize there is meaningful innovation taking place here.
Chart
Figure 1: OCUL daily advanced chart (Source: Finviz)
