Summary
- Some possible Alzheimer's success is now built into the stock price.
- Disputes about Alzheimer's trial details are muddying the picture.
- Three candidates with good Phase 2 data means a likely win in Phase 3.
Biogen (BIIB) has been volatile lately, spiking on possible good Alzheimer's therapy news before pulling back partway. When I last recommended Biogen (Biogen Buy Signal: Alzheimer's Royalties Option) in May the stock was at $272. I concluded the market assumption was that Biogen's Alzheimer's therapies would fail to gain commercial approval, but Biogen management was more confident than the market.
Now that the market has priced in some possible success for Alzheimer's, those negative on the stock are back to their old thesis that the entire Alzheimer's pipeline borders on valueless. They are not without their arguments, but my analysis is that they have a low probability of being completely right. While this article will be about the four Alzheimer's potential therapies, I also believe that the rest of the pipeline, including the new Ionis (IONS) deal, will enrich investors for the next couple of decades, totally apart from the Alzheimer's space.
