Pronounced Shift in Market to Smaller-Sized Sales; Changes in Federal Tax Law Continues to Impact Sales Volume and High-end of Market
Douglas Elliman Real Estate, the largest brokerage in the New York Metropolitan area and the second largest independent residential real estate brokerage in the United States by sales volume, today released the first quarter 2019 Fairfield County and Greenwich, CT Sales Market Reports. The reports showed that both Greenwich and Fairfield County saw a pronounced shift to smaller-sized sales with more price gains in the condo market.
“We are seeing continued declines in sales size in Greenwich, as well as all of Fairfield county, as buyers showed more interest in smaller-sized properties on the low end of the market,” said Scott Elwell, Douglas Elliman’s Senior Executive Regional Manager of Westchester and New England. “This has spurred sales activity in the Greenwich condo market, and by comparison, the single family and luxury markets appeared to weaken. It’s still unclear if this will be a long-term trend or if we’re observing volatility as the market adjusts to the tax law impact.”
In Greenwich, condo sales surged again as they have in three of the past four quarters, and single-family home sales fell to the lowest first quarter total in eight years. Fairfield County showed similar trends, with a continued shift towards smaller-sized properties and a slowdown in high-end sales activity. Median sales prices declined and single-family inventory expanded in both regions as smaller sales skewed price trend indicators lower.
“As it did for most of 2018, it’s clear that the new federal tax law is still playing a key role in the shift away from the high-end of the market and the drop in sales,” said Jonathan Miller, President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc. and author of the report. “Listing inventory rose in both markets, and the luxury listing inventory in Greenwich showed large gains in supply for the third consecutive quarter.”
FAIRFIELD COUNTY SALES HIGHLIGHTS
Overview
“The market continues to indicate a shift in the overall sales mix to smaller properties.”
- The average sales size has declined year over year for seven straight quarters
- Number of sales decreased year over year for the fifth consecutive quarter
- Listing inventory expanded year over year for the second straight quarter
- The average size of a luxury sale declined annually for four out of the five recent quarters
- The shift in the mix to smaller sized luxury sales skewed all price trend indicators lower
- The luxury entry threshold fell to its lowest level in six years as high-end sales activity slowed
Key Trend Metrics (compared to same year ago period)
- Median sales price slipped 6.6% to $359,450
- Number of sales decreased 2.6% to 1,968
- Days on market was 137, down from 145
- Listing discount was 5%, up from 4.6%
- Listing inventory rose 1.8% to 4,692
GREENWICH SALES HIGHLIGHTS
Overview
“Condo sales continued to surge as single-family sales reflected a pronounced decrease.”
- Single family sales fell to lowest first quarter total in eight years
- Single family average sales size fell for third consecutive quarter, pulling down price trends
- Condo sales surged in three of the past four quarters
- Sharp drop in luxury threshold reflected the shift away from the high-end of the market
- Luxury listing inventory reflected large gains in supply for three straight quarters
Key Trend Metrics (compared to same year ago period)
SINGLE FAMILY
- Median sales price declined 16.7% to $1,687,000
- Number of sales dropped 24.5% to 74
- Days on market was 214, up from 211
- Listing discount was 7.6%, up from 5.9%
- Listing inventory rose 8.2% to 591
- Average Sales Square Footage fell 6% to 4,156
CONDO
- Median sales price slipped 5.1% to $681,500
- Number of sales surged 33.3% to 32
- Days on market was 180, up from 164
- Listing discount was 4.2%, down from 5.5%
- Listing inventory fell 10.3% to 96
- Average Sales Square Footage rose 7.7% to 1,993
About Douglas Elliman Real Estate
Established in 1911, Douglas Elliman Real Estate is the largest brokerage in the New York Metropolitan area and the second largest independent residential real estate brokerage in the United States by sales volume. With more than 7,000 agents, the company operates approximately 118 offices in New York City, Long Island, The Hamptons, Westchester, Connecticut, New Jersey, Florida, California, Colorado and Massachusetts. Moreover, Douglas Elliman has a strategic global alliance with London-based Knight Frank Residential for business in the worldwide luxury markets spanning 60 countries and six continents. The company also controls a portfolio of real estate services including Douglas Elliman Development Marketing, Douglas Elliman Property Management and Douglas Elliman Commercial. For more information on Douglas Elliman as well as expert commentary on emerging trends in the real estate industry, please visit elliman.com.
