Summary
- Acceleron will start a Phase 3 sotatercept for PAH trial by year end.
- Q3 results should show continuing good Reblozyl revenue ramp.
- It is possible sotatercept will see commercial sales in 2023 or earlier.
Acceleron Pharma (NASDAQ:XLRN) in 2019 became a commercial stage pharmaceutical company when Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) started marketing Reblozyl for anemia associated with beta-thalassemia. Acceleron developed and licensed Reblozyl to Celgene, which was then absorbed into Bristol Myers. I look forward to seeing a good Reblozyl royalty ramp when Acceleron reports Q3 results around November 4, 2020, and I will cover that briefly. The focus of this article, however, is the potential of sotatercept, which has become clearer lately. Currently, Acceleron has not licensed this potential therapy, which means it can either commercialize it itself or demand a premium if it does license it out.
Data by YChartsReblozyl Potential in Q3
Reblozyl (luspatercept) generated royalties of $11.1 million for Acceleron in Q2 2020, up from just $1.5 million in Q1. Bristol Myers reported $63 million in Reblozyl sales in Q2. Neither Bristol Myers nor Acceleron broke down sales or royalties by disease type. The beta-thalassemia anemia indication started generating sales in late Q4 2019. The MDS (myelodysplastic syndromes) anemia indication was approved by the FDA in April, so could have added to Q2 sales. MDS is the much more common indication, so we should see a good ramp in Q3. There should be some sales in Europe in Q3, though, after an EU approval, drugs get reimbursement approval on a country-by-country basis. Canada approved the drug for beta-thalassemia on September 29, which could help the ramp in Q4. Bristol and Acceleron plan to extend the label as well, with lower risk MDS and myelofibrosis being upcoming expansion targets.
