Summary
- Moderna fell sharply after briefly trading close to $100.
- Quarterly earnings update failed to inspire investors.
- Investors ignoring improving fundamentals.
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At the peak of the hype for COVID-19 vaccine developers, Moderna (MRNA), at a $95.21 high, looked like it would break above $100. Additional government funding announcements, upcoming Phase 3 clinical trial results, and pre-orders should have sent Moderna stock to new highs. Yet the market has a way of reversing a "sure thing" to uncertainty. While BioNTech SE (BNTX) and Novavax (NVAX) get the reward for trading at over $100 (BNTX is now $74 at the time of writing), what should Moderna investors do next?
[img src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/8/10/... alt="Moderna
Data courtesy of Moderna
As shown above, the company published Phase 1 safety data for CMV vaccine and Zika vaccine. Despite lower doses, the study included positive safety and reactogenicity data. At higher doses, seropositives increased. Most importantly, the only adverse events were pain at the injection site, fatigue, headache, and chills in the seronegative group. Seropositives exhibited fever and arthralgia.
The company also reported durable neutralizing antibody responses six months after the final vaccination. Phase 3 trial will start in 2021. Its primary endpoint "is anticipated to be prevention of primary infection in seronegative women of childbearing age." It will have less than 8,000 participants involved.
