Summary
- Ocular Therapeutix already has one marketed product and several promising pipeline therapies using its novel implant technology for the treatment of eye diseases.
- Ocular's wet AMD treatment will hopefully allow 4.5-6 months between doses versus 1-2 months for the current standard-of-care or 3 months for Kodiak's promising therapy.
- Trading at a sub-$500 million market cap, Ocular should see significant upside if it can achieve continued clinical success.
Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) is a small biopharma focused on developing eye disease therapies utilizing its proprietary platform of bioresorbable implants. Ocular got on my radar after I saw this article from Jonathan Faison, and I wanted to add my take after thoroughly researching the company. I believe Ocular provides a lot of value to long-term investors at current price levels.
Ocular’s Platform Technology Is Targeting Several Huge Indications
Ocular is developing six different ophthalmology products, including several different extended-release products, utilizing its proprietary implant technology.
Figure 1: Market Opportunities for Ocular’s Pipeline
(Source: Corporate presentation)
Wet AMD is the largest market opportunity for Ocular’s implant technologies. The current anti-VEGF injections have to be given every 4-8 weeks. This is problematic in that it’s not ideal for patients to have to visit their doctor so frequently, but it’s also a big deal that patients run the risk of side effects associated with these injections each time they are administered. The side effects for Eylea, a multi-blockbuster wet AMD treatment, include burst blood vessels, eye pain, cataracts, floaters, blurred vision, etc.
Another competitor, Kodiak Sciences (KOD), is developing a potential therapy that likely would only have to be dosed every 3 months. While this is certainly better than the current standard-of-care therapies, OTX-TKI should be able to achieve longer - hopefully 4.5-6 months. It will be key to watch as OTX-TKI’s development continues whether it is able to show this increased duration of efficacy. Any data suggesting that OTX-TKI wouldn’t be effective longer than Kodiak’s treatment would be devastating to Ocular.
Wet AMD is a huge market opportunity. One estimate I’ve seen for the wet AMD market was $6.9 billion in 2018 and that the market is projected to grow at a 7.1% compounded rate for the next few years, resulting in a market of around $10.4 billion by 2024. Regeneron’s (REGN) wet AMD blockbuster, Eylea, had $4.644 billion in sales in 2019 alone. Ocular has suggested it is already a $13 billion market opportunity. Regardless of the exact amount, it’s clear that success for OTX-TKI would mean tremendous upside in a stock that currently has a market cap just under $500 million.
